AppLovin's earnings on May 6 represent a hard catalyst for a sentiment reset, with the stock down ~42% YTD despite exceptional fundamentals including 72% operating margins, 85% gross margins, and 38.9% forward EPS growth. Low short float limits squeeze potential but strong insider ownership (33.87%) and a PEG of 0.49 signal deep value relative to growth.
Entry zone: $375–$395 (current area, below SMA50, ahead of May 6 earnings)
Evidence & risks
- Hard dated catalyst: earnings May 6 AMC — management has had a full quarter to sandbag, cut costs, and reset guidance, exactly as the post thesis outlines.
- Exceptional unit economics confirm the long thesis: 72.38% operating margin, 85.47% gross margin, 55.58% profit margin, and 56.96% ROIC — this is not a broken business, it is a dislocated one.
- PEG of 0.49 with EPS next 5Y at 38.93% and forward P/E of 18.91 vs trailing P/E of 41.43 implies the market is already pricing in significant deceleration that may not materialize, creating asymmetric upside on an earnings beat.
- Stock is trading well below all key moving averages (SMA20 -6%, SMA50 -9.4%, SMA200 -24.3%) with beta of 2.44 and daily ATR of $29.56 — any macro risk-off event or ad-spend deceleration signal in the print could accelerate the drawdown violently.
- Institutional net selling (Inst Trans: -2.66%) and the stock sitting 47.5% below its 52-week high suggest smart money is still rotating out; a disappointing guidance reset or mobile ad market softness could invalidate the sandbag thesis entirely.
Social signals (1)
software dump = bottom signal you guys are actually regarded, software is down 30–40% YTD and NOW you decide “yeah this is where i sell” because twitter and CNBC boomers told you AI is killing SaaS let me remind you that these companies will make a monster come back by EOY. most of these companies report in \~4–6 weeks, already had a FULL quarter to reset expectations, guidance and expectations are already nuked and sentiment = everyone bearish at the same time **all the CEOs and management are about to...** \- sandbag last quarter \- cut costs \- reset expectations next call: “AI is actually driving efficiency” “pipelines improving” “enterprise stabilizing” all the clown analysts will upgrade the stock AFTER the move as always **MY POSITIONS** **APP (AppLovin)** * 100 shares @ 401 * sold 430 CC (5/8 earnings week) * bought 430 call (4/17) as a run-up play i’m positioning for a slow grind-up, IV expansion, and 15% moves up **NOW (ServiceNow)** * 100 shares @ 93 * sold 80 put if it dumps → i buy more if it rips → i keep premium this is called having a theta brain TLDR: stop dumping software and help my heavy bags going into earnings season https://preview.redd.it/smogg3jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d2e4e8e966f512a068de2b9e4d603e33f0fcc9fd https://preview.redd.it/8u8093jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0cd2e6577b78232a8f5682d4c9cf6e3808647350 https://preview.redd.it/ne68m3jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e22c1087d1cd2020b00bc05bd9bb5148dc31c902 https://preview.redd.it/w537x2jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=088b1f3996c3fc14f7d78da70979b5c6f1390b2e
Finviz snapshot (83 fields)
| IPO | Apr 15, 2021 | P/B | 62.03 | P/C | 53.08 |
| P/E | 41.43 | P/S | 22.74 | PEG | 0.49 |
| ROA | 49.98% | ROE | 203.79% | Beta | 2.44 |
| ROIC | 56.96% | Index | NDX, S&P 500 | P/FCF | 33.24 |
| Price | 391.38 | Recom | 1.36 | SMA20 | -6.02% |
| SMA50 | -9.36% | Sales | 5.81B | Change | 3.23% |
| Income | 3.23B | Payout | 0.00% | SMA200 | -24.34% |
| Trades | Volume | 4,833,367 | 52W Low | 222.02 76.28% | |
| Book/sh | 6.31 | Cash/sh | 7.37 | Debt/Eq | 1.66 |
| EPS Q/Q | 87.52% | Perf 3Y | 2367.72% | Perf 5Y | - |
| 52W High | 745.61 -47.51% | ATR (14) | 29.56 | EV/Sales | 22.92 |
| Earnings | May 06 AMC | Inst Own | 70.79% | Perf 10Y | - |
| Perf YTD | -41.92% | RSI (14) | 42.65 | EPS (ttm) | 9.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.26 | Employees | 898 | Perf Week | 1.30% |
| Perf Year | 48.35% | Sales Q/Q | 20.77% | Shs Float | 223.03M |
| Avg Volume | 6.21M | EPS next Q | 3.42 | EPS next Y | 32.10% |
| EPS this Y | 60.71% | Inst Trans | -2.66% | LT Debt/Eq | 1.65 |
| Market Cap | 132.00B | Perf Month | -15.18% | Prev Close | 379.14 |
| Rel Volume | 0.78 | Volatility | 8.56% 6.24% | EPS Y/Y TTM | 103.72% |
| EPS next 5Y | 38.93% | Forward P/E | 18.91 | Insider Own | 33.87% |
| Perf Half Y | -37.85% | Quick Ratio | 3.32 | Short Float | 6.15% |
| Short Ratio | 2.21 | Dividend TTM | - | Gross Margin | 85.47% |
| Oper. Margin | 72.38% | Option/Short | Yes / Yes | Perf Quarter | -36.52% |
| Shs Outstand | 307.95M | Target Price | 654.46 | Current Ratio | 3.32 |
| Dividend Est. | - | EPS past 3/5Y | - - | Insider Trans | -0.63% |
| Profit Margin | 55.58% | Sales Y/Y TTM | 23.28% | Short Interest | 13.72M |
| Sales past 3/5Y | 21.89% 30.45% | Dividend Ex-Date | - | EPS/Sales Surpr. | 9.89% 2.84% |
| Enterprise Value | 133.06B | Dividend Gr. 3/5Y | - - |
ServiceNow has been indiscriminately sold off 45%+ YTD despite strong fundamentals, with earnings on Apr 22 AMC providing a dated catalyst for a guidance reset and analyst re-rating. RSI of 22 near 52W lows and rel volume of 2.94x suggest capitulation-style selling that could reverse sharply on any beat-and-raise.
Entry zone: 80–88 range (near 52W low of 88.66, with support being tested); scale-in given high volatility (ATR 5.60)
Evidence & risks
- Hard dated catalyst: earnings Apr 22 AMC — within the 4-6 week window cited by the thesis, giving a specific event for re-rating.
- Fundamentals remain intact: 20.88% revenue growth YoY, 77.53% gross margin, PEG of 0.80 and forward P/E of 16.45 vs. trailing 49.72 imply analysts expect massive EPS ramp — stock is priced for catastrophe that hasn't materialized.
- Extreme technical oversold condition: RSI 14 at 22.40, price -60.75% from 52W high, -47.47% below 200-SMA, and rel volume 2.94x average suggesting climactic selling pressure consistent with a flush/bottom setup.
- Macro/AI-displacement narrative may not reverse at earnings — if guidance is cut or management signals enterprise deal slippage, the stock has further to fall with no obvious floor.
- Institutional ownership at 87.24% with inst transactions at -0.57% shows smart money has been trimming; continued institutional distribution post-earnings could overwhelm any retail-driven bounce.
Social signals (1)
software dump = bottom signal you guys are actually regarded, software is down 30–40% YTD and NOW you decide “yeah this is where i sell” because twitter and CNBC boomers told you AI is killing SaaS let me remind you that these companies will make a monster come back by EOY. most of these companies report in \~4–6 weeks, already had a FULL quarter to reset expectations, guidance and expectations are already nuked and sentiment = everyone bearish at the same time **all the CEOs and management are about to...** \- sandbag last quarter \- cut costs \- reset expectations next call: “AI is actually driving efficiency” “pipelines improving” “enterprise stabilizing” all the clown analysts will upgrade the stock AFTER the move as always **MY POSITIONS** **APP (AppLovin)** * 100 shares @ 401 * sold 430 CC (5/8 earnings week) * bought 430 call (4/17) as a run-up play i’m positioning for a slow grind-up, IV expansion, and 15% moves up **NOW (ServiceNow)** * 100 shares @ 93 * sold 80 put if it dumps → i buy more if it rips → i keep premium this is called having a theta brain TLDR: stop dumping software and help my heavy bags going into earnings season https://preview.redd.it/smogg3jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d2e4e8e966f512a068de2b9e4d603e33f0fcc9fd https://preview.redd.it/8u8093jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0cd2e6577b78232a8f5682d4c9cf6e3808647350 https://preview.redd.it/ne68m3jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e22c1087d1cd2020b00bc05bd9bb5148dc31c902 https://preview.redd.it/w537x2jrhgug1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=088b1f3996c3fc14f7d78da70979b5c6f1390b2e
Finviz snapshot (83 fields)
| IPO | Jun 29, 2012 | P/B | 6.71 | P/C | 13.80 |
| P/E | 49.72 | P/S | 6.54 | PEG | 0.80 |
| ROA | 7.53% | ROE | 15.49% | Beta | 0.96 |
| ROIC | 11.46% | Index | S&P 500 | P/FCF | 18.97 |
| Price | 83.00 | Recom | 1.34 | SMA20 | -20.69% |
| SMA50 | -22.99% | Sales | 13.28B | Change | -7.58% |
| Income | 1.75B | Payout | 0.00% | SMA200 | -47.47% |
| Trades | Volume | 58,480,040 | 52W Low | 88.66 -6.39% | |
| Book/sh | 12.38 | Cash/sh | 6.01 | Debt/Eq | 0.19 |
| EPS Q/Q | 4.22% | Perf 3Y | -12.20% | Perf 5Y | -21.70% |
| 52W High | 211.48 -60.75% | ATR (14) | 5.60 | EV/Sales | 6.25 |
| Earnings | Apr 22 AMC | Inst Own | 87.24% | Perf 10Y | 543.41% |
| Perf YTD | -45.82% | RSI (14) | 22.40 | EPS (ttm) | 1.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.87 | Employees | 29187 | Perf Week | -18.63% |
| Perf Year | -47.03% | Sales Q/Q | 20.66% | Shs Float | 1.04B |
| Avg Volume | 19.89M | EPS next Q | 0.97 | EPS next Y | 20.53% |
| EPS this Y | 19.25% | Inst Trans | -0.57% | LT Debt/Eq | 0.18 |
| Market Cap | 86.82B | Perf Month | -28.22% | Prev Close | 89.81 |
| Rel Volume | 2.94 | Volatility | 7.06% 4.85% | EPS Y/Y TTM | 21.72% |
| EPS next 5Y | 20.60% | Forward P/E | 16.45 | Insider Own | 0.67% |
| Perf Half Y | -54.61% | Quick Ratio | 0.95 | Short Float | 2.88% |
| Short Ratio | 1.50 | Dividend TTM | - | Gross Margin | 77.53% |
| Oper. Margin | 14.66% | Option/Short | Yes / Yes | Perf Quarter | -43.22% |
| Shs Outstand | 1.05B | Target Price | 179.90 | Current Ratio | 0.95 |
| Dividend Est. | - | EPS past 3/5Y | 73.56% 70.18% | Insider Trans | 0.13% |
| Profit Margin | 13.16% | Sales Y/Y TTM | 20.88% | Short Interest | 29.88M |
| Sales past 3/5Y | 22.38% 24.05% | Dividend Ex-Date | - | EPS/Sales Surpr. | 3.98% 1.12% |
| Enterprise Value | 82.93B | Dividend Gr. 3/5Y | - - |
Amazon, as Anthropic's primary cloud partner and investor, stands to benefit from the controlled 'Project Glasswing' rollout of advanced AI cyber-defense tools to major financial institutions, funneling enterprise AI workloads through AWS. Strong underlying fundamentals with accelerating EPS growth and improving margins provide a solid foundation.
Entry zone: $230–$236 on any intraday pullback given overbought RSI
Evidence & risks
- EPS next year growth estimated at 21.48% with forward P/E of 25.28, suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful acceleration while PEG of 1.40 remains reasonable for a hyperscaler.
- Gross margin expanded to 50.29% and operating margin at 11.80% reflect AWS and advertising mix shift, directly aligned with incremental AI infrastructure demand from regulated rollouts like Project Glasswing.
- Post bodies explicitly name AMZN as a top beneficiary of the Anthropic/Mythos controlled deployment; Amazon's strategic equity stake in Anthropic makes it the primary cloud conduit for any enterprise or financial-sector AI rollout.
- RSI at 71.46 and price up 13.64% in one week signals near-term overbought conditions; a mean-reversion pullback could precede any sustained move toward the $280.94 analyst target.
- The catalyst is indirect and speculative — Amazon benefits only if AWS is selected as the infrastructure layer for Project Glasswing; regulatory friction or a competing provider (Google Cloud) could dilute the thesis.
Social signals (1)
Bessent, Powell Summon Bank CEOs to Urgent Meeting Over Anthropic's New AI Model - Bloomberg [Bessent, Powell Summon Bank CEOs to Urgent Meeting Over Anthropic's New AI Model - Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-10/anthropic-model-scare-sparks-urgent-bessent-powell-warning-to-bank-ceos) [Powell, Bessent flag systemic risk from advanced AI models | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/centralbank/powell-bessent-flag-systemic-risk-from-advanced-ai-models-20260410/) Article below: Obvious plays seem like anything Anthropic related ( Chips & clouds), $AMZN $GOOG +20% from here imo. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ US regulators convene major banks over AI-driven cyber risks, highlighting growing concern over systemic vulnerabilities. Info via Bloomberg ([gated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-10/anthropic-model-scare-sparks-urgent-bessent-powell-warning-to-bank-ceos)). Summary: * US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held urgent meeting with major banks * Focus: cyber risks tied to advanced AI model “Mythos” * Model reportedly capable of identifying and exploiting system vulnerabilities * Regulators see AI-driven cyber threats as a top financial stability risk * Systemically important banks urged to strengthen defences * Controlled rollout via “Project Glasswing” to limit risk exposure * Highlights emerging intersection of AI capability and systemic financial risk US financial authorities have moved swiftly to address a growing threat at the intersection of artificial intelligence and financial stability, convening an urgent meeting with major Wall Street banks to assess emerging cyber risks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell brought together senior executives from the largest US banks in Washington this week, underscoring the seriousness with which regulators are treating the issue. The focus of the discussions was a new generation of AI systems, particularly a model known as “Mythos,” which is believed to possess advanced capabilities in identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities across widely used software and infrastructure. The meeting, organised at short notice, reflects rising concern that increasingly sophisticated AI tools could materially alter the cyber threat landscape. Regulators are worried that such systems, if misused, could enable more effective and scalable attacks on financial institutions, raising the risk of systemic disruption. All banks involved in the discussions are considered systemically important, meaning any compromise of their systems could have far-reaching implications for the broader financial system. By bringing these institutions together, policymakers appear to be aiming for a coordinated and pre-emptive response rather than reacting after vulnerabilities are exploited. The concerns are not purely theoretical. The developers of the model have themselves acknowledged both its offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, and have taken steps to limit its release. Access has initially been restricted to a small group of major technology and financial firms as part of a controlled rollout designed to strengthen system resilience ahead of wider deployment. This initiative, referred to as “Project Glasswing,” is intended to ensure that critical infrastructure is hardened before similar technologies become more broadly available. It reflects a growing recognition that advances in AI are not just productivity-enhancing, but also introduce new classes of risk. The issue also intersects with broader tensions between the technology sector and policymakers. The company behind the model is reportedly engaged in a legal dispute with US authorities over its classification as a supply-chain risk, highlighting the complex regulatory environment surrounding cutting-edge AI development. Overall, the episode signals a shift in regulatory focus. Cybersecurity risks driven by AI are increasingly being treated not just as operational concerns, but as potential threats to financial stability itself.
Finviz snapshot (83 fields)
| IPO | May 15, 1997 | P/B | 6.22 | P/C | 20.75 |
| P/E | 33.24 | P/S | 3.57 | PEG | 1.40 |
| ROA | 10.77% | ROE | 22.29% | Beta | 1.38 |
| ROIC | 13.77% | Index | DJIA, NDX, S&P 500 | P/FCF | 332.55 |
| Price | 238.38 | Recom | 1.29 | SMA20 | 12.34% |
| SMA50 | 11.70% | Sales | 716.92B | Change | 2.02% |
| Income | 77.67B | Payout | 0.00% | SMA200 | 6.01% |
| Trades | Volume | 56,742,120 | 52W Low | 165.29 44.22% | |
| Book/sh | 38.31 | Cash/sh | 11.49 | Debt/Eq | 0.41 |
| EPS Q/Q | 5.04% | Perf 3Y | 133.32% | Perf 5Y | 41.38% |
| 52W High | 258.60 -7.82% | ATR (14) | 6.69 | EV/Sales | 3.63 |
| Earnings | Feb 05 AMC | Inst Own | 65.99% | Perf 10Y | 701.82% |
| Perf YTD | 3.28% | RSI (14) | 71.46 | EPS (ttm) | 7.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.33 | Employees | 1576000 | Perf Week | 13.64% |
| Perf Year | 31.54% | Sales Q/Q | 13.63% | Shs Float | 9.72B |
| Avg Volume | 50.68M | EPS next Q | 1.63 | EPS next Y | 21.48% |
| EPS this Y | 8.27% | Inst Trans | 0.81% | LT Debt/Eq | 0.37 |
| Market Cap | 2558.99B | Perf Month | 12.10% | Prev Close | 233.65 |
| Rel Volume | 1.12 | Volatility | 2.77% 2.37% | EPS Y/Y TTM | 28.97% |
| EPS next 5Y | 18.09% | Forward P/E | 25.28 | Insider Own | 9.41% |
| Perf Half Y | 5.84% | Quick Ratio | 0.88 | Short Float | 0.90% |
| Short Ratio | 1.73 | Dividend TTM | - | Gross Margin | 50.29% |
| Oper. Margin | 11.80% | Option/Short | Yes / Yes | Perf Quarter | -3.21% |
| Shs Outstand | 10.73B | Target Price | 280.94 | Current Ratio | 1.05 |
| Dividend Est. | - | EPS past 3/5Y | - 27.96% | Insider Trans | -0.02% |
| Profit Margin | 10.83% | Sales Y/Y TTM | 12.38% | Short Interest | 87.64M |
| Sales past 3/5Y | 11.73% 13.18% | Dividend Ex-Date | - | EPS/Sales Surpr. | -1.00% 0.91% |
| Enterprise Value | 2605.60B | Dividend Gr. 3/5Y | - - |
| Run | Time | Status | Sources | Picks | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2026-04-12 09:49 | failed | 0 | 2s |